Hard Hold of 16 in Blackjack
The casino game of blackjack is one of the world’s most popular, and it’s a great mix of skill and luck. Millions of players play the game every year, and there are plenty of tips and tricks that help them improve their chances of winning. However, there are some situations where a player’s best option may be to surrender their hand and end the session early.
One of these situations is a hard 16 against the dealer’s 7. This is one of the toughest spots a player can be put in, and it can seem like no matter what they do, they’ll end up losing more hands than they win.
There are a few different strategies that can be used with this situation, and many of them will suggest that the player should hit their hand. This is because the dealer will bust more often if the player hits their hand, and the dealer will also be less likely to get a ten on an upcard. However, this is a false economy, and it will cost the player more hands in the long run than if they just stood their hand.
In the first article in this series I described how all blackjack strategy is based on expected values. That means that you’re not hitting or sticking because you hope the next card will be a certain value, but because of the odds and probabilities that apply to the situation. In fact, the vast majority of the time it is correct to stick with a soft 17 against the dealer’s 7 upcard. However, there are some cases where it is better to hit, such as a hard hold of 16, and these are usually in situations where the dealer’s upcard is a 2 through 6.
This article will look at the case of a hard hold of 16 against a dealer’s 7 upcard. The basic rules of blackjack dictate that you should stand on a hard 16 when the dealer has a 6 or lower, and hit if they have a 7, 8, or Ace up. This is a situation where the composition-based basic strategy suggests that you should hit, but the results of a 250,000,000 blackjack simulation using CV Data show that this is actually a false economy. Instead, you should simply stand on a hard 16 if the dealer has a 6, and hit it if they have a 7.